EU clouds forecast risks for the UK
EU clouds looming
The UK must stay in the EU. Some in the UK are not aware of the pending disaster, if UK leaves. The cliffs of Dover may attract a new meaning.
“France and other EU countries will dismantle barriers stopping migration to the
UK” – David Blunkett, the former Labour Home Secretary.
There are 997 sea ports in the British Isles. Are UK residents ready to pay for staff, customs and border controls 24 x 7? (List of Ports – Source UK ports org).
Loss of trade. “The UK car industry, (jobs) will be hit by 10% extra tax on cars sales to Europe, 5% extra tax on car parts” – Nicola Horlick, a British investment fund manager. Customers near to you are valuable. Easier delivery. Further risks abound for loss of trade and new taxes.
Macro politics, macro economics, force majeure, call it what you like, forces out of control may determine the fate of many. The UK Prime Minister called this referendum to retain votes against UKIP – now months later this price is being paid, with risks of more severe future losses. Meanwhile there has been loss of trade, (postponed and cancelled orders), UK foreign exchange rate slide (orders cancelled, more expensive overseas holidays for UK residents), and reduced parliamentary discussion time for other important issues.
UK citizens living overseas must operate under the rules of the government of the country in which they live. A Brit, a business owner in Germany, invested all his savings years ago and now does not know what to do. Apply for a German passport? Prepare to leave and sell? His letters to Downing Street received a reply saying “we do not know”.
When there was a crisis in the Middle East and foreign nationals were stranded, the first government to rescue their nationals was the French Government. But now, UK citizens overseas have no idea what will happen to them if EU regulations change. What will happen to Gibraltar?
ORANGE, the French telecom company, started operations in the UK in 1993 then sold to EE in 2015. EDF (Electricity of France) is still operational in the UK. There many links between companies in Continental Europe and the UK. The shortest distance across the strait is from the South Foreland, 33.1 kilometres, 20.6 miles. The BBC says a third of our trade is via the sea. It seems logical that trading with clients close-by is easier than trading with customers far away, for example New Zealand. In New Zealand the majority of cars are made in Japan. Can you imagine the shipping costs to export cars to NZ?
Those who do not study history are forced to relive it. Continual close dialogue between European countries is vital.
London is blessed with being in the best time zone in the world for financial trading. Many seek to invest through London due to the time of day that the London financial sector is open for business, compared for example to New York or Tokyo. It is no secret that Paris and Frankfurt have for many years eyed enviously all the trading volumes going through London. Paris and Frankfurt also have stock exchanges and are only 1 hour apart from the UK time zone. The staff speak perfect English in EU trading centres. Tougher UK financial regulation is already testing stress points, benefiting other global trading cities.
London financial firms pay a huge amount of tax to HMRC. So if this reduces, who is going to pick up the tab? UK residents. Who needs to pay for UK services?…….anyone who is a UK tax payer.
There does appear to be over regulation in the EU. This I agree, but it is better to be “in” to discuss changes.
Can you imagine the extra costs that will be signed off if UK leaves?
Do not think it will happen immediately – 3 years is considered the best guess.
More costs in the transition.
Find new trading partners…..where? ok send products by sea and air….Heathrow new airport?
I am told that the EU paid a huge amount to the UK during the mad cow disease epidemic. There is power by being in a group.
If the UK leaves what can they gain by leaving? Do not gamble – yes try to negotiate change…. and you will not do that from outside!